The odds
as of Nov 4, 23:15 UTC- Democratic party 95% +22
- Republican party 2% −17
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+16 pts
Democratic party, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 80% · Oct 29: 80% · Oct 30: 80% · Oct 31: 80% · Nov 1: 79% · Nov 2: 79% · Nov 3: 78% · Nov 4: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Democratic party; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic party wins the Arizona State House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the State House is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Arizona House of Representatives; The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗