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KalshiCloses August 21, 2028

Spanish general election winner?

People's Party leads at 89% (about 9 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 6, 13:16 UTC.

People's Party 89%

The odds

as of Nov 6, 13:16 UTC
  • People's Party 89% —
  • Spanish Socialist Workers' Party 11% +4
  • Sumar 3.9% —
  • Vox <1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+7 pts

People's Party, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 29Nov 689%

Oct 30: 80% · Oct 31: 82% · Nov 1: 82% · Nov 2: 83% · Nov 3: 83% · Nov 4: 88% · Nov 5: 88% · Nov 6: 89%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, People's Party; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the winner of the next Spanish general election is People's Party, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Clarification (10/06/26): For purposes of this Contract, seats won by the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC-PSOE) count toward the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE).

Settlement sources: Ministry of Interior

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Politics & elections

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