The odds
as of Nov 6, 15:16 UTC- Above $41,000 74% −15
- Above $41,500 10% −63
- Above $42,000 25% —
- Above $42,500 2% −7
- Above $43,000 3.5% −4
- Above $43,500 3% —
- Above $44,000 3% —
- Above $44,500 3% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−16 pts
Above $41,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 90% · Oct 31: 90% · Nov 1: 90% · Nov 2: 90% · Nov 3: 90% · Nov 4: 90% · Nov 5: 90% · Nov 6: 53%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $41,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Toyota’s first official, non-preliminary U.S. starting MSRP for the 2027 Toyota Sienna, published after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, is above $41,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Starting MSRP means the manufacturer-published price for the model’s lowest-priced U.S. retail configuration across trims, cab styles, bed lengths, and drivetrains, explicitly identified as “Starting MSRP” or “Base MSRP” on its official U.S. model page, pricing announcement, or price sheet. Pricing for higher-priced configurations alone does not qualify. Prices are in USD, excluding destination/delivery charges, duties, taxes, registration, dealer fees or markups, and optional equipment, and without applying rebates, incentives, tax credits, or discounts. The event will close and resolve upon qualifying publication, without waiting until the announcement cutoff. Later price changes, corrections, and revisions are ignored. Estimates, third-party prices, and prices for other model years do not qualify. If no qualifying price is published within the specified window, all markets resolve No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Toyota. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Toyota
See it on Kalshi ↗