The odds
as of Nov 9, 05:18 UTC- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals 72% +7
- Not nine justices 16% —
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals 9% —
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals 1.4% —
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals 1.3% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts
6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 67% · Nov 3: 67% · Nov 4: 68% · Nov 5: 70% · Nov 6: 69% · Nov 7: 70% · Nov 8: 70% · Nov 9: 73%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If on Jan 20, 2029 there are 6 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican Presidents and 3 Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes. If there are not nine justices at the time of Expiration, then only the “Not nine justices” strike will resolve to Yes and all other strikes will resolve to No.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗