The odds
as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC- Before Jan 21, 2029 53% —
- Before 2028 45% —
- Before June 2027 19% —
- Before 2027 12% +1
- Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$234K
Favourite, 7 days+11 pts
Before Jan 21, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 44% · Sep 29: 43% · Sep 30: 64% · Oct 1: 59% · Oct 2: 57% · Oct 3: 51% · Oct 4: 55% · Oct 5: 53%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 21, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗