The odds
as of Oct 6, 03:30 UTC- Above 52 36% +1
- 52 18% −1
- 51 14% —
- 50 12% —
- 49 8.2% −1
- 48 6.5% —
- 47 2.9% —
- Below 45 1.9% −1
Traded today$72K
Traded in all$3.8M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 52, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 37% · Sep 30: 36% · Oct 1: 37% · Oct 2: 36% · Oct 3: 36% · Oct 4: 36% · Oct 5: 36% · Oct 6: 36%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 52; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic Party has above 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
Settlement sources: United States Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗