The odds
as of Nov 7, 21:13 UTC- 3.90% or Below 89% +40
- Exactly 3.94% 4.5% —
- Exactly 3.91% 3.5% —
- Exactly 3.93% 3.5% —
- Exactly 3.92% 3% —
- Exactly 3.95% 2.5% —
- Exactly 3.96% 2.5% —
- 3.97% or Above 2.5% —
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
3.90% or Below, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 6: 73% · Nov 7: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 3.90% or Below; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for November 6, 2026 is at most 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for November 6, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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