The odds
as of Nov 2, 23:15 UTC- Above 12.4 million 91% +7
- Above 12.6 million 78% +12
- Above 12.8 million 84% +24
- Above 13 million 75% +25
- Above 13.2 million 74% +43
- Above 13.4 million 18% —
- Above 13.6 million 7% —
- Above 13.8 million 12% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+12 pts
Above 12.4 million, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 26: 80% · Oct 27: 79% · Oct 28: 80% · Oct 29: 79% · Oct 30: 79% · Oct 31: 79% · Nov 2: 78%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 12.4 million; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Match Group Inc. reports Above 12400000.0 total payers in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Fiscal.ai
See it on Kalshi ↗