The odds
as of Oct 6, 03:30 UTC- Before Jan 20, 2029 43% −0.5
- Before 2027 17% −2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$588K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Before Jan 20, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 44% · Sep 30: 43% · Oct 1: 43% · Oct 2: 43% · Oct 3: 43% · Oct 4: 42% · Oct 5: 42% · Oct 6: 43%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: the White House; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC
See it on Kalshi ↗