The odds
as of Nov 3, 08:21 UTC- North Carolina Senate 70% −3
- Georgia Senate 32% −3
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts
North Carolina Senate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 68% · Oct 28: 67% · Oct 29: 67% · Oct 30: 67% · Oct 31: 67% · Nov 1: 66% · Nov 2: 66% · Nov 3: 70%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, North Carolina Senate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If North Carolina Senate achieves the largest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Georgia US Senate and North Carolina US Senate, including any December 1, 2026 Georgia runoff, as of Dec 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used.
Settlement sources: Georgia Secretary of State; North Carolina State Board of Elections
See it on Kalshi ↗