The odds
as of Oct 17, 02:30 UTC- Above 8.20M 93% +8
- Above 8.80M 77% −8
- Above 9.40M 63% −10
- Above 10.00M 56% −8
- Above 10.30M 51% —
- Above 10.60M 46% −1
- Above 11.20M 29% −7
- Above 11.80M 18% −15
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+43 pts
Above 8.20M, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 12: 93% · Oct 13: 96% · Oct 14: 95% · Oct 15: 93% · Oct 16: 92% · Oct 17: 88%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 8.20M; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election is above 8200000, then the market resolves to Yes. The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.
Settlement sources: Texas Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗