The odds
as of Oct 7, 06:40 UTC- Before Jan 20, 2029 79% −1
- Before 2028 68% −1
- Before 2027 7.6% −2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$974K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Before Jan 20, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 30: 79% · Oct 1: 79% · Oct 2: 77% · Oct 3: 82% · Oct 4: 80% · Oct 5: 80% · Oct 6: 79% · Oct 7: 79%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the DEA were to reschedule only certain cannabis derivatives or specific cannabinoids (e.g., move THC or a particular cannabis-derived pharmaceutical to a different schedule) without reclassifying marijuana/cannabis as a whole, that would not qualify as rescheduling marijuana for this contract. Ending the schedule altogether would resolve the market to Yes. Clarification (12/12/25): The Payout Criterion requires that marijuana is legally removed from Schedule I. The mere announcement or publication of a Final Rule in the Federal Register does not satisfy the Payout Criterion if the rule has not taken legal effect. The market resolves based on the actual status of the Schedules under the Controlled Substances Act.
Settlement sources: Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; the United States Congress; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗