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Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 93% ▲+85Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 92% ▲+82Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Nov 6, 2… James Talarico 3.5% ▼−79Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 94% ▲+692026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout? 125 million and above 7.6% ▼−62Philadelphia vs Detroit: 2nd Quarter Winner Detroit 18% ▼−56Georgia: Bottoms's margin vs. Ossoff's margin? Ossoff by 3-6 63% ▲+54Florida Governor margin of victory Donalds, 1.5+ pts 22% ▼−53Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? Nithya Raman, 6-8% 59% ▲+53Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential … Chris Christie 89% ▲+53Iowa: Sand's margin vs. Turek's margin? Sand by 6-9 90% ▲+532028 presidential odds leader on November 30? Other 51% ▲+47Philadelphia vs Detroit: Triple Double LeBron James 50% ▲+47Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028) Above 56 59% ▲+43
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Florida's 20th District margin of victory

Wasserman Schultz, 31+ pts leads at >99% (all but certain, by the price) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 01:18 UTC. It's up 9 points in the last 24 hours.

Wasserman Schultz, 31+ pts >99% ▲ 9 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 01:18 UTC
  • Wasserman Schultz, 31+ pts >99% +9
  • Wasserman Schultz, 34+ pts >99% +7.7
  • Wasserman Schultz, 37+ pts >99% +17
  • Wasserman Schultz, 40+ pts >99% +26
  • Wasserman Schultz, 46+ pts >99% +58
  • Wasserman Schultz, 43+ pts >99% +34
  • Wasserman Schultz, 49+ pts >99% +68
  • Wasserman Schultz, 52+ pts 96% +73

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$101K
Traded in all$103K
Favourite, 7 days+5.7 pts

Wasserman Schultz, 31+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 599%

Oct 29: 96% · Oct 30: 96% · Oct 31: 96% · Nov 1: 96% · Nov 2: 96% · Nov 3: 96% · Nov 4: >99% · Nov 5: >99%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Wasserman Schultz, 31+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 20th District by 31 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: Florida Division of Elections

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