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Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 93% ▲+96Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? South Carolina 3.5% ▼−91Universitario vs Sport Boys Sport Boys 97% ▲+86Hawks vs. Wizards Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 15.5 91% ▲+85Which party will win white voters in the midterms? Republicans 13% ▼−81North Carolina State Senate winner? Democratic party 3.5% ▼−81Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 81% ▲+78Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 5-10 93% ▲+76Mississippi Senate winner? Cindy Hyde-Smith 3.7% ▼−722026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout? 120 to 124.99 million 69% ▲+68Will Abdul El-Sayed outperform the polls? Yes 87% ▲+602026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victor… Democrats, 12 to 14% 71% ▲+59Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 88% ▲+54California Baptist vs Oregon St. California Baptist 66% ▲+54
KalshiCloses November 3, 2027

Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory

Hurd, 1+ pts leads at 52% (about 5 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 03:19 UTC. It's up 12 points in the last 24 hours.

Hurd, 1+ pts 52% ▲ 12 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 03:19 UTC
  • Hurd, 1+ pts 52% +12
  • Hurd, 3+ pts 4% −39
  • Hurd, 6+ pts 2.8% —
  • Hurd, 9+ pts 1.1% —
  • Hurd, 12+ pts <1% −3.6
  • Hurd, 15+ pts <1% −9
  • Hurd, 18+ pts <1% −8.3

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$36K
Traded in all$51K
Favourite, 7 days+22 pts

Hurd, 1+ pts, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 28Nov 552%

Oct 29: 54% · Oct 30: 54% · Oct 31: 54% · Nov 1: 54% · Nov 2: 54% · Nov 3: 51% · Nov 4: 51% · Nov 5: 52%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Hurd, 1+ pts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Colorado's 3rd District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources: Colorado Secretary of State

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