The odds
as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC- Before Jan 2027 6.6% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$54K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Before Jan 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 6.1% · Oct 2: 6.6% · Oct 3: 6.7% · Oct 4: 6.1% · Oct 5: 6.2% · Oct 6: 6% · Oct 8: 6.9% · Oct 9: 6.6%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Lisa DeNell Cook leaves or announces that they will leave their position as Federal Reserve Governor before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that they will leave office is sufficient to immediately resolve the market to Yes. However, the announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do not count. Leaving office as a result of death will not count. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) will count even without a prior announcement.
Settlement sources: office or organization where holds ; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC; official government websites relevant to the Federal Reserve
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