The odds
as of Nov 7, 22:14 UTC- Before Apr 1, 2027 24% −7
- Before Jan 1, 2027 21% −40
- Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$501
Traded in all$81K
Favourite, 7 days−13 pts
Before Apr 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 3: 35% · Nov 4: 34% · Nov 5: 38% · Nov 6: 38% · Nov 7: 24%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Apr 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Kari Lake is the first person confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
Settlement sources: U.S. Senate
See it on Kalshi ↗