The odds
as of Nov 9, 04:20 UTC- 4 46% −6
- 5 or more 41% +11
- 3 8.5% −10
- 2 2% —
- 0 1% —
- 1 1% —
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$43K
Favourite, 7 days−1.5 pts
4, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 32% · Nov 3: 47% · Nov 4: 50% · Nov 5: 52% · Nov 6: 52% · Nov 7: 52% · Nov 8: 52% · Nov 9: 46%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 4; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump makes exactly 4 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A single visit begins when Donald Trump arrives in Mar-a-Lago and ends when Donald Trump has left Mar-a-Lago. A visit need not end to be included — i.e., if Nov 2026 ends with Donald Trump still there, that visit counts for the purposes of the count. If Donald Trump is in Mar-a-Lago at the beginning of Nov 2026, that will count as a visit. Multiple separate visits during Nov 2026 count individually.
Settlement sources: official schedules of the President; releases and public statements of White House; Fox News; BBC; The Information; MSNBC; Semafor; Bloomberg News; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; White House pool reports; Donald Trump; Reuters; official government sources of Florida; The Guardian; Axios; official social media accounts of Donald Trump or his official representatives; CNN; the White House; The New York Times; NBC; Politico; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; CBS
See it on Kalshi ↗