The odds
as of Oct 27, 20:19 UTC- Citigroup 4.5% −1
- Goldman Sachs 3% −9
- Morgan Stanley 3% −1
- Bank of America 3% −2
- JPMorgan Chase 1% −2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$631
Traded in all$127K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Citigroup, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 22: 4.5% · Oct 23: 5% · Oct 24: 5% · Oct 25: 5% · Oct 26: 5% · Oct 27: 4.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Citigroup; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Citigroup serves as a lead underwriter for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.
Settlement sources: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; EDGAR database; company; bank; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; The Wall Street Journal; Financial Times; Axios; Politico; MarketWatch; Yahoo Finance; CNBC; Fox Business; ABC; CBS; CNN; MSNBC; NBC
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