The odds
as of Oct 8, 22:24 UTC- Likud 51% +9
- Yashar 50% +2
- Together 2.5% —
- Bennett 2026 1.8% —
- National Unity 1.5% —
- Yesh Atid <1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$85K
Favourite, 7 days+9 pts
Likud, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 44% · Oct 2: 46% · Oct 3: 47% · Oct 4: 48% · Oct 5: 45% · Oct 6: 47% · Oct 7: 47% · Oct 8: 50%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 8, 22:24 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Likud; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election is Likud, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Central Elections Committee
See it on Kalshi ↗