The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- December 31 34% —
- October 31 4% −0.5
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$994K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 39% · Sep 29: 41% · Sep 30: 39% · Oct 1: 39% · Oct 2: 35% · Oct 3: 34% · Oct 4: 34% · Oct 5: 34%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗