The odds
as of Oct 6, 15:25 UTC- Chris Thomas 59% +20
- Alfred Cannan 19% −13
- Jane Poole-Wilson 17% −13
- Rob Callister 5% −9
- David Ashford 5% —
- Joney Faragher 5% —
- Claire Christian 4% —
- Lawrie Hooper 3% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$41K
Favourite, 7 days+30 pts
Chris Thomas, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 30% · Sep 30: 30% · Oct 1: 34% · Oct 2: 39% · Oct 3: 36% · Oct 4: 37% · Oct 5: 36% · Oct 6: 59%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 6, 15:25 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Chris Thomas; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Chris Thomas becomes Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 24, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: House of Keys; Lieutenant Governor of the Isle of Man
See it on Kalshi ↗