The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before Jan 20, 2029 66% −14
- Before 2028 63% −10
- Before 2027 3.5% −2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$105K
Favourite, 7 days−12 pts
Before Jan 20, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 78% · Sep 29: 78% · Sep 30: 78% · Oct 1: 81% · Oct 2: 76% · Oct 3: 77% · Oct 4: 71% · Oct 5: 66%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The cabinet is defined as the following: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and White House Chief of Staff.
Settlement sources: U.S. House of Representatives.
See it on Kalshi ↗