The odds
as of Oct 12, 01:10 UTC- Above 10 97% +1
- Above 15 92% —
- Above 20 72% −2
- Above 25 37% −1
- Above 30 17% +1
- Above 35 9.5% —
- Above 40 5.5% —
- Above 45 2.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$21K
Traded in all$32K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
Above 10, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 9: 97% · Oct 10: 97% · Oct 11: 97% · Oct 12: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 10; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗