The odds
as of Oct 28, 17:18 UTC- Above 3 96% +1
- Above 4 79% —
- Above 5 69% −2
- Above 6 47% −2
- Above 7 31% —
- Above 8 12% +1
- Above 9 2.5% −2
- Above 10 1.5% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$19K
Traded in all$31K
Favourite, 7 days+4.5 pts
Above 3, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 90% · Oct 24: 95% · Oct 25: 95% · Oct 26: 95% · Oct 27: 95% · Oct 28: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 3 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗