The odds
as of Oct 12, 13:45 UTC- Before Dec 1, 2026 85% +37
- Before Jan 1, 2027 82% +19
- Before Nov 1, 2026 66% +29
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+28 pts
Before Dec 1, 2026, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 8: 44% · Oct 9: 45% · Oct 10: 50% · Oct 11: 60% · Oct 12: 85%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Dec 1, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Kimberly Guilfoyle leaves as US Ambassador to Greece before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kimberly Guilfoyle must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure and the natural expiration of a term. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
Settlement sources: U.S. Department of State; U.S. Embassy in Greece; Hellenic Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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