The odds
as of Nov 6, 13:16 UTC- Above 35 99% —
- Above 50 >99% +0.5
- Above 65 >99% —
- Above 75 >99% +1
- Above 80 5.5% +5
- Above 85 1.5% −1
- Above 95 1% −1
- Above 100 1% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$104K
Traded in all$281K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Above 50, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 99% · Oct 30: 99% · Oct 31: 99% · Nov 1: 99% · Nov 2: 99% · Nov 3: 99% · Nov 4: >99% · Nov 5: >99%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 50; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 50 , then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 7th. The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means ChatGPT App Downloads was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗