The odds
as of Nov 5, 01:18 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 49% +3
- Before Nov 3, 2026 5% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 4% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 46% · Oct 30: 50% · Oct 31: 50% · Nov 1: 50% · Nov 2: 51% · Nov 3: 51% · Nov 4: 42% · Nov 5: 49%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democratic Leader before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The Wall Street Journal; Associated Press; Reuters; Bloomberg News; the New York Times; ABC News
See it on Kalshi ↗