The odds
as of Oct 27, 05:25 UTC- Above 112 74% −5
- Above 129 8% —
- Above 132 4.5% −1
- Above 135 4% —
- Above 138 4.5% −2
- Above 141 2.5% —
- Above 166 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$775
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Above 112, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 75% · Oct 21: 84% · Oct 22: 73% · Oct 23: 73% · Oct 24: 78% · Oct 25: 78% · Oct 26: 70% · Oct 27: 80%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 112; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Broadline Retail Ad Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 112, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 5th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 5th. The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means Broadline Retail Ad Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Carbon Arc. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗