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Closest Senate race in 2026? Mississippi 92% ▲+92Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent At least 44% 11% ▼−88Michigan Senate election: Mike Rogers vote percent At least 46% 12% ▼−86Closest Governor race in 2026? Kansas 86% ▲+74Mississippi Senate winner? Scott Colom 86% ▲+72Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Mississippi 81% ▲+72Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Nov 6, 2… Abdul El-Sayed 81% ▲+70How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after th… 56 74% ▲+67Georgia State House winner? Democratic party 97% ▲+66Will Abdul El-Sayed outperform the polls? Yes 95% ▲+65How many House seats will Democrats win in Nevada? 4 96% ▲+64How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after … Below 45 80% ▲+62Tennessee Governor election: Marsha Blackburn vote… At least 48% 3.5% ▼−62Will the filibuster be weakened? Before 2028 85% ▲+60
KalshiGame · Nov 4

Michelsen vs Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz leads at 84% (about 8 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 4, 15:18 UTC. It's down 3 points in the last 24 hours.

Carlos Alcaraz 84% ▼ 3 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 4, 15:18 UTC
  • Carlos Alcaraz 84% −3
  • Alex Michelsen 18% —
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts

Carlos Alcaraz, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Nov 3Nov 484%

Nov 3: 84% · Nov 4: 84%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Carlos Alcaraz; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Michelsen vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Paris Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Michelsen vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Paris Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources: ATP

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