Will LLM restrictions become law?

(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: Forbids their creation Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with Prevents their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products. An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify. Only bills that become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, according to Congress.gov, count. The following do NOT count: State laws Executive orders and agency rules