The odds
as of Oct 7, 16:29 UTC- December 31, 2027 70% —
- June 30, 2027 46% —
- December 31, 2026 4.9% +1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$12K
Traded in all$1.0M
Favourite, 7 daysunch
December 31, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 30: 70% · Oct 1: 70% · Oct 2: 70% · Oct 3: 70% · Oct 4: 70% · Oct 5: 70% · Oct 6: 70% · Oct 7: 70%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordIf the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
See it on Polymarket ↗