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PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

The market puts it at 30% — about 3 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 19, 08:37 UTC. It's up 14 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 30% ▲ 14 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 19, 08:37 UTC
  • Chance of yes 30% +14
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$28K
Yes, 7 days+4.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 11Oct 1931%

Oct 12: 26% · Oct 13: 20% · Oct 14: 23% · Oct 15: 20% · Oct 16: 20% · Oct 17: 17% · Oct 18: 14% · Oct 19: 31%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both James Talarico and Ken Paxton participate in a televised or live-streamed debate or candidate forum between market creation and October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, both listed individuals must be present, either on stage or in a virtual forum, and both must respond to at least one question while the other is present. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. A candidate forum in which both candidates participate at different times will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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