The odds
as of Oct 9, 22:25 UTC- Chance of yes 12% −3
Traded today$888
Traded in all$25K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 2: 13% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 14% · Oct 5: 12% · Oct 6: 12% · Oct 7: 13% · Oct 8: 15% · Oct 9: 12%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordAccording to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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