Moving
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Plague pandemic in 2026?

The market puts it at 3.1% — a long shot, about one in 32 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC
  • Chance of yes 3.1% —
Traded today$27K
Traded in all$27K
Yes, 7 days−9.3 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 63%

Oct 5: 5.5% · Oct 6: 3.2%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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