The odds
as of Oct 12, 12:53 UTC- Chance of yes 3.8% −1
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$215K
Yes, 7 days−1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 5: 4.7% · Oct 6: 4.7% · Oct 7: 4.7% · Oct 8: 5% · Oct 9: 5% · Oct 10: 5% · Oct 11: 5.2% · Oct 12: 3.3%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
See it on Polymarket ↗