The odds
as of Oct 11, 17:22 UTC- 4 37% −33
- 5 37% —
- 6 11% —
- 3 10% −1
- 7 or more 6% —
- 0 1% —
- 1 1% —
- 2 1% —
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts
4, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 4: 13% · Oct 5: 13% · Oct 6: 14% · Oct 7: 22% · Oct 8: 27% · Oct 9: 75% · Oct 10: 37% · Oct 11: 37%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 4; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump makes exactly 4 trips to Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A single visit begins when Donald Trump arrives in Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. and ends when Donald Trump has left Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. A visit need not end to be included — i.e., if Oct 2026 ends with Donald Trump still there, that visit counts for the purposes of the count. If Donald Trump is in Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. at the beginning of Oct 2026, that will count as a visit. Multiple separate visits during Oct 2026 count individually.
Settlement sources: official schedules of the President; releases and public statements of White House; Fox News; BBC; The Information; MSNBC; Semafor; Bloomberg News; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; White House pool reports; person; official representatives or offices of person; Reuters; official government sources of place; The Guardian; Axios; Presidential; official social media accounts of person or their official representatives; CNN; the White House; The New York Times; NBC; Politico; other political staff; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; CBS
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