Moving
Pro Football Next Coach Out Dan Quinn 60% ▲+58Ivanovic vs Moneva Gala Ivanovic 97% ▲+48London Lions vs Portland Portland 92% ▲+42Hougang United vs Balestier Khalsa Balestier Khalsa 73% ▲+41Gadamauri vs Kopp Sandro Kopp 94% ▲+41Kimberly Guilfoyle out as US Ambassador to Greece? Before Dec 1, 2026 85% ▲+37First Solar module volume sold in Q3 Above 3800 mw 60% ▼−35Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Jacob Frey 34% ▲+33Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? Before Jan 1, 2028 62% ▲+33EPL Golden Boot Joao Pedro 37% ▲+32Guerrieri vs Shelbayh Andrea Guerrieri 84% ▲+30THE UNIT vs. STATE THE UNIT 78% ▲+28How many times will Trump visit his D.C. golf club… 3 36% ▲+27Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greec… October 31 59% ▲+27
PolymarketCloses October 31, 2026

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12 leads at >99% (all but certain, by the price) on Polymarket, as of Oct 12, 12:53 UTC. It's up 2.6 points in the last 24 hours.

October 12 >99% ▲ 2.6 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 12, 12:53 UTC
  • October 12 >99% +2.6
  • October 15 94% +2
  • October 31 79% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$768K
Traded in all$954K
Favourite, 7 days+38 pts

October 12, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 10Oct 1299%

Oct 10: 61% · Oct 11: 97% · Oct 12: >99%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →