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PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Mistral leads at 24% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 29, 13:19 UTC. It's up 11 points in the last 24 hours.

Mistral 24% ▲ 11 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 29, 13:19 UTC
  • Mistral 24% +11
  • Z.ai 6.4% +3.5
  • ByteDance 6.3% +4
  • Amazon 6.3% +4
  • Google 4.5% —
  • Moonshot 3.9% +1.6
  • Alibaba 3.9% −5.7
  • DeepSeek 3.8% +1.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$6K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+11 pts

Mistral, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2924%

Oct 22: 11% · Oct 23: 38% · Oct 24: 13% · Oct 25: 8.2% · Oct 26: 12% · Oct 27: 13% · Oct 28: 15% · Oct 29: 24%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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