The odds
as of Nov 2, 11:16 UTC- November 2–November 8 76% +36
- November 16–November 22 12% —
- November 9–November 15 7.5% −11
- No release by January 31 4% −3
- November 23–November 29 2.5% +2
- November 30–December 6 2.4% −9
- December 21–December 27 <1% —
- December 28–January 3 <1% —
Traded today$13K
Traded in all$70K
Favourite, 7 days+71 pts
November 2–November 8, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 26: 8.7% · Oct 27: 2.4% · Oct 28: 5.3% · Oct 29: 8.1% · Oct 30: 14% · Oct 31: 26% · Nov 1: 62% · Nov 2: 76%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗