The odds
as of Oct 5, 21:23 UTC- Chance of yes 3.2% −0.6
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$641K
Yes, 7 days−0.6 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 3.8% · Sep 29: 3.8% · Sep 30: 3.8% · Oct 1: 3.8% · Oct 2: 3.8% · Oct 3: 3.8% · Oct 4: 3.8% · Oct 5: 3.2%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗