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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2028

Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?

December 31, 2027 leads at 69% (about 7 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC. It's up 19 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31, 2027 69% ▲ 19 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC
  • December 31, 2027 69% +19
  • December 31, 2026 2.9% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$532
Traded in all$74K
Favourite, 7 days+27 pts

December 31, 2027, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 969%

Oct 2: 43% · Oct 3: 44% · Oct 4: 46% · Oct 5: 46% · Oct 6: 50% · Oct 7: 51% · Oct 8: 52% · Oct 9: 69%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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