The odds
as of Oct 22, 14:25 UTC- Google 33% −3
- OpenAI 13% −7
- Nvidia 11% —
- SpaceXAI 7% —
- Meta 6.9% —
- Alibaba 6.3% +2
- ByteDance 6% —
- Anthropic 5.3% —
Traded today$945
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Google, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 15: 32% · Oct 16: 30% · Oct 17: 34% · Oct 18: 35% · Oct 19: 35% · Oct 20: 42% · Oct 21: 36% · Oct 22: 33%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
See it on Polymarket ↗