Moving
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (… Other 76% ▲+62Grammy Winner: Best Contemporary Country Album Flow State 61% ▲+60Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Yes 60% ▲+55Largest Company end of October 2026? NVIDIA 33% ▼−54Camacho vs Reis Da Silva Emilio Camacho 56% ▲+52NHL: Players to Record 50+ Goals Bryan Rust 53% ▲+49GAT vs Stallions CC Stallions CC 93% ▲+45Which countries will qualify for LA28 men's lacros… Great Britain 71% ▲+45Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by … Newt Gingrich 45% ▲+43Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh? Before Apr 1, 2027 30% ▼−40PPI MoM in October Above 0.4% 87% ▲+40Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the ele… Yossi Cohen 39% ▲+37Housing units authorized in Vermont in 2026 Above 1,400 units 94% ▲+372028 presidential odds leader on November 30? JD Vance 59% ▼−31
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Third-best AI Agent Lab end of December?

OpenAI leads at 32% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 30, 04:21 UTC. It's down 1.5 points in the last 24 hours.

OpenAI 32% ▼ 1.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 30, 04:21 UTC
  • OpenAI 32% −1.5
  • Google 28% +2.5
  • Meta 22% −1.4
  • Alibaba 8.4% +8
  • Baidu 6% +0.5
  • SpaceXAI 5.5% −3
  • Moonshot 4.7% −1.7
  • MiniMax 4.6% —
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+12 pts

OpenAI, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 22Oct 3032%

Oct 23: 21% · Oct 24: 21% · Oct 25: 17% · Oct 26: 22% · Oct 27: 19% · Oct 28: 38% · Oct 29: 33% · Oct 30: 32%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

More markets like this

All →