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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff leads at 50% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC. It's up 1.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • Steve Witkoff 50% +1.5
  • Jared Kushner 50% +1
  • Abbas Araghchi 48% −1
  • Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 35% −3.5
  • Majid Takht-Ravanchi 28% +8
  • Kazem Gharibabadi 22% +4.5
  • Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 22% −5
  • Nick Stewart 22% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$29K
Traded in all$1.2M
Favourite, 7 days+25 pts

Steve Witkoff, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 550%

Oct 1: 15% · Oct 2: 56% · Oct 3: 49% · Oct 4: 50% · Oct 5: 50%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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