The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 36% −2
- Before Dec 1, 2026 22% −2
- Before Nov 1, 2026 6.5% −2
- Before Sep 18, 2026 2% —
- Before Oct 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$18K
Traded in all$720K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 35% · Sep 29: 39% · Sep 30: 40% · Oct 1: 35% · Oct 2: 39% · Oct 3: 39% · Oct 4: 36% · Oct 5: 36%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump publicly criticizes Kevin Warsh before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "publicly criticize" means Donald Trump must: Make a statement that explicitly expresses disapproval, negative judgment, or unfavorable assessment of Kevin Warsh The criticism must be directed at Kevin Warsh by name, title, or clear contextual reference that a reasonable observer would understand refers to Kevin Warsh in a clear and unambiguous manner The statement must be negative in substance, not merely mentioning Kevin Warsh in a neutral or positive context Criticism must be made by Trump personally, not through official statements that don't quote him directly.
Settlement sources: Donald Trump; Fox News; The Wall Street Journal; Semafor; ABC; New York Times; CBS; the White House; The Washington Post; Axios; CNN; Reuters; Bloomberg News; the Associated Press; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗