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PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

OpenAI resumes training by...?

October 31 leads at 52% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 13, 07:37 UTC. It's down 15 points in the last 24 hours.

October 31 52% ▼ 15 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 13, 07:37 UTC
  • October 31 52% −15
  • October 15 9.5% −4.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$4K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−14 pts

October 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 1355%

Oct 6: 56% · Oct 7: 46% · Oct 8: 54% · Oct 9: 42% · Oct 10: 51% · Oct 11: 53% · Oct 12: 51% · Oct 13: 55%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying announcement must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. The totality of the announcement and its surrounding context must clearly establish that training covered by the pause announced on September 25 has resumed, even if the announcement does not name the incident or specify the date the pause was announced. Statements that training is permitted, planned, or expected to restart do not by themselves qualify. Training that was not subject to the pause announced on September 25, 2026, does not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the announcement is later modified or withdrawn, or training is subsequently paused again. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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