The odds
as of Oct 12, 17:25 UTC- Above 3,500 units 54% −31
- Above 4,000 units 34% —
- Above 4,500 units 19% —
- Above 5,000 units 12% —
- Above 5,500 units 5.5% —
- Above 6,000 units 4.5% —
- Above 6,500 units 3.5% +1
- Above 7,000 units 2.5% +1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$135K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
Above 3,500 units, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 57% · Oct 6: 57% · Oct 7: 57% · Oct 8: 57% · Oct 9: 57% · Oct 10: 57% · Oct 11: 54% · Oct 12: 54%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3,500 units; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the U.S. Census Bureau reports that the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in calendar year 2026 is strictly above 3,500 units, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, “multifamily” means housing units in structures containing 5 units or more, corresponding to the BPS column labeled “5 Units or More.” Units in 2-unit and 3–4-unit structures will not be included. The Underlying is the final annual 2026 estimate for Connecticut published by the U.S. Census Bureau, not monthly or year-to-date estimates.
Settlement sources: U.S. Census Bureau
See it on Kalshi ↗