The odds
as of Oct 5, 17:23 UTC- Above 1M 20% −19
- Above 2M 11% —
- Above 3M 9% —
- Above 4M 18% —
- Above 5M 10% −1
- Above 6M 20% —
- Above 8M 6% —
- Above 10M 5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$676
Traded in all$47K
Favourite, 7 days−78 pts
Above 1M, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 97% · Sep 30: 97% · Oct 1: 84% · Oct 2: 26% · Oct 3: 30% · Oct 4: 30% · Oct 5: 30%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 1M; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If How To Quit Smoking by Dominic Fike has above 1M streams during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC is a neutral provider of market metrics which does not endorse, verify or participate in any way in the outcomes of any prediction market.
Settlement sources: Luminate
See it on Kalshi ↗