The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- 2 57% +32
- 1 43% +5
- 0 12% −2
- 3 8% −2
- 4 2% +1
- 5 1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$55K
Favourite, 7 days+17 pts
2, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 40% · Sep 29: 28% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 23% · Oct 2: 26% · Oct 3: 25% · Oct 4: 41% · Oct 5: 43%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 2; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Trump makes exactly 2 trips to Mar-a-Lago in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved A single visit begins when the President arrives in Mar-a-Lago and ends when the President has returned to the White House. A visit need not end to be included - i.e. if Oct 2026 ends with the President still there, that visit counts for the purposes of the count. If the President is in Mar-a-Lago at the beginning of Oct 2026, that will count as a visit.
Settlement sources: Fox News; White House; New York Times; Politico
See it on Kalshi ↗