Moving
Who will AOC endorse? Darializa Avila Chevalier 82% ▲+67V-Varen vs Hiroshima V-Varen 75% ▲+63Kenya vs Denmark Denmark 20% ▼−63V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8.5% ▼−57Mozambique vs Gambia Mozambique 95% ▲+52Shimizu S-Pulse vs. FC Machida Zelvia FC Machida Zelvia 95% ▲+51Shimizu vs Machida Z Machida Z 95% ▲+49Moutet vs Balshaw Felix Balshaw 52% ▼−43Marinos vs Tokyo V Marinos 94% ▲+42Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Tōkyō Verdy Yokohama F·Marinos 94% ▲+42Will Missouri manufacturing employment rise YoY? Yes 37% ▼−36Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film Once Upon a Time in Harlem 71% ▼−36Alcala Gurri vs Moller Elmer Moller 84% ▲+34The Angry Birds Movie 3 · Rotten Tomatoes score Above 45 69% ▲+33
PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

The market puts it at 59% — about 6 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 21, 11:23 UTC. It's up 7.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 59% ▲ 7.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 21, 11:23 UTC
  • Chance of yes 59% +7.5
Traded today$613
Traded in all$26K
Yes, 7 days−3.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 13Oct 2148%

Oct 14: 63% · Oct 15: 62% · Oct 16: 68% · Oct 17: 46% · Oct 18: 48% · Oct 19: 56% · Oct 20: 30% · Oct 21: 48%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Z.ai, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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